RE: Wow Things Are Much Worse Than I Thought!
2009/02/10 10:59:52
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An interesting phenomenon is to put an obscuring number of jellybeans into a jar and let however many of us idiots guess at the number. The average number guessed by us average joes is likely to be closer to the actual number of jellybeans than any single guess, and guarenteed to be closer than the smartest guy's in the room. That is the not so secret of free will, free enterprise and democracy. However, the counting itself can be messy.
If you live long enough and/or read fast enough you'll find that most of what has happened has already happened somewheres along the line. And most problems are self-correcting. Take our economic crisis. It seems like the worst since the black death as pronounced by those that think they know. Yet most of those are the same ones that got us into the current mess. Last year the deficit was $500B. This year just on straight appropriations we are going to be higher than that - $600-700B. Add TARP for the banks - $700B. That is $1.4T or about 10% of the US GDP. But wait, there's more. They won't spend all $800+B this year of the stimulus (or next, which begs the question of how it is stimulating if you ain't spending it until after the traditional legnth of a recession is over), but discretionary spending is doubling to $700B, so add another $350B. So that is over 10% GDP. Next year it will be close to the same because of discretionary spending plus the interest on that 1.7T
PUmping out that much money means your GDP is diluted by 20% over the next two years and that means inflation, even if we borrow it from the Chinese (and they look to have enough of their own problems). So welcome back to the 70s and the era of Jimmy Carter. Of course, this is just one man's opinion, but I wager my guess is as good as the experts.
have a nice day!
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http://www.bnoir-film.com/ there came forth little children out of the city, and mocked him, and said unto him, Go up, thou bald head; go up, thou bald head.
24 And he turned back, and looked on them, and cursed them in the name of the Lord. And there came forth two she bears out of the wood, and tare forty and two children of them.