Okay...it just got weirder. Try this test, and let me know what you find.
1. Create a project in Vegas (I used Vegas 12).
2. Render it as an MP4; leave the project open.
3. Bring the MP4 into that project.
4. Compare the start time of the audio in the rendered video compared to where the audio starts in the project itself.
When I did this, they did not line up; the audio in the MP4 was later. So even when using Vegas to render a file, then bringing that file directly back into Vegas, there was a timing issue with the audio.
If I rendered only the audio in Vegas as WAV or FLAC, then brought it back into Vegas and compared it to the audio in the project, they lined up perfectly. If I rendered only the audio as MP3, then brought it back into Vegas and compared to the audio in the project, it was late (later than the MP4 audio). When I brought the MP4 into SONAR, rendered only the audio, and compared it to the original audio in the project is was also late (somewhat more than the MP3).
So it seems any rendering to a lossy format, no matter how minimal, affects timing whereas rendering into a lossless format does not. This only partially explains why bringing in SONAR's audio is later than the MP3, but I suspect that if there's an issue that occurs while encoding (e.g., as happened with the MP3) there more be even more of an issue if encoding
and decoding (e.g., as happened with SONAR's audio). This may explain dannyjmusic's comment about SONAR liking AVIs better; apparently Vegas likes uncompressed formats better too, and would also explain the various threads about desync issues with compressed formats like MP4.
One more tidbit: It seems the offset occurs when importing into SONAR, not exporting. So in addition to the time added at the beginning of the audio due to exporting from Vegas, there's
additional time added due to importing into SONAR. This tends to support my suspicion that issues happen during both encoding and decoding. If I render the audio from the MP4 imported into SONAR then bring it back in to SONAR, it lines up perfectly with the imported MP4 audio.