More unexplainable bizarreness - but before that, I want to emphasize from the perspective of the original post, Melodyne works fine in stand-alone as well as in most of my Sonar (Ipswich) projects . This eliminates concerns about running as admin, hardware conflicts, etc. If it were in those arenas it would fail always, not sometimes.
So the news: this morning I set about making a smaller version of the BadMelo project (one where Melodyne could only work normally if I fooled it by the "open GoodMelo first" trick) for shipment to Cake analysis. After I stripped out everything in the synth rack, I saved with new name (BadMelo_01, as it happens) and tested that I still could not invoke Melodyne successfully - check, still broken - cool. However, once I closed and re-opened BadMelo_01 suddenly Melodyne is happy and I get golden blobs. F*&* !
This put me in "find the offending soft synth mode". This is a tiresome place to be, because you repeatedly open the original problem project, remove one item, save, close, and open again - hopefully until you are able to associate one change in the project with a resolution of the initial problem. Sadly, I could find no specific vst being absolutely identifiable as the culprit - any reduction in the number of vst synths created a situation where Melodyne would open properly (after save, close, reopen). To make matters worse, after hours of fooling around with this, suddenly the original project was able to open with a functional Melodyne.
So (sidebar to Noel here) I can't reliably create a small bundle that exhibits the problem.
I now get a sneaking feeling that this may have something to do with a timeout of some sort on the Melodyne plug - like maybe in large projects where there is a bunch of "stuff", it can't do what it needs to do for validation quick enough and just throws in the towel, sorry kid, greyed-out mode for you.