Interesting - having found the empty key, I wondered what would happen if I forced the key to point to a known good layout. So I forced it via Regedit, restarted Sonar, and Insert Synth was no longer greyed out and appeared to work as before.
Next step was to attempt to select the default layout via Insert Synth in synth rack. That instantly failed, and the greyed-out was back. I looked again at the registry, and the key had been zapped to blank. So I forced it back to a valid layout, and Insert Synth was instantly available again - surprisingly, I didn't even have to restart Sonar.
Subsequently, I have switched between various alternative layouts without problem, but as soon as I select the default, the failure returns.
So it looks like some kind of buggy handling of the default layout is causing Sonar to blow a fuse.