akai LPK25
For the sake of brevity, I'll compare when it works (start pc first, plug in KB, start X3) with when it doesn't (kb plugged in before laptop started)
 
Obviously when it works, it ticks all your boxes
 
When it doesn't, it ticks most of them eg lpk25 detected and ticked in devices, the only difference is that in the act mc surface thingy, when it works - lpk25 ticked
and when it doesn't  it is not ticked BUT it's there and I can and did tick it.
and this time the lights don't flash
 
When X3 terminated, no sign of sonar or bitbridge in tsk manager.
X3 will not restarted after being turned off, without laptop reboot
regardless of whether midi kb has been used or not.