mister happy
When Noel Borthwick PM'd Wookie and explained that "if the Cake servers are to be shutdown all legal owners will be issued with a file that will allow for authorisation on new installs or reinstall's." it certainly seemed like authorization without a online server is technically possible.
Your assumption seems to be that because the Cake servers are switching over to Bandlab servers, that constitutes a shutdown, meaning we will still get our permanent activations.
However, since Cake is being taken over by Bandlab, they may not see it the same way. Technically, there hasn't been a shutdown, just a change of name, so no reason to provide a one-off activation. (I'm not speaking from any authority here, just playing devil's advocate).
So from what I can tell, that question is still up in the air.....