azslow3a) who was on-board and has payed every time, has Lifetime by now
That is a certain percentage for sure, but new people buy Platinum, and Artist and Pro users still upgrade their programs or in some cases, upgrade to Platinum. It helps that Windows is having a resurgence, because it's creating more interest in Windows DAWs, and that benefits SONAR.
b) harvesting by LE versions coming with some hardware (like me and I remember some other) is also out of equation (f.e. US-2x2 is still listen in retails with X3 LE, not eligible for reduced price, unlike also included Live Lite...)
SONAR has never had a strong presence in interface bundles because it's not cross-platform. The pairing of X3 LE and Live Lite for the TASCAM interfaces was a deal I helped facilitate because of my connections with Cakewalk, TASCAM, and Ableton but that kind of deal is an exception.
c) who was still waiting with X3 are out
I suspect that if they didn't get lifetime updates and they didn't update during the window when cheaper upgrade prices were still in effect, they're not going to upgrade.
d) continuous membership bring no benefits (no special upgrade price this year, even increased now, no "loyal" members bonus mentioned in the model).
I think there will be benefits, just like how someone who re-subscribes to a magazine gets a special deal if they continue their subscription. Granted that's just how I would do things, but it's a pretty universal concept so I suspect Cakewalk would be thinking along the same lines.
e) "coming soon" could help (d), so the price could be justified by something existing plus interesting coming features, but it is not there and what "soon" means in practice have proved to be undefined.
Well, it's a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation, isn't it? Everyone has their "wish list" but they'd prefer not to have to pay to have those wishes implemented. If Cakewalk can fill more items on the wish list, and people aren't willing to pay for it, then that would be a problem. But if by paying $100 I could have ripple editing
right now, I'd do it. Looking back, if ripple editing appears soon, I would
personally consider $250 for plug-in load balancing, the PRV updates, transform tool, and ripple editing worth it.
Of course I understand not everyone has the same priorities, so those updates might not be worth $250 to them. I am speaking only for myself, and not as a hobbyist for whom $250 might seem excessive but as someone who depends on SONAR to make a living.