Something similar happened to me a few updates ago, but it was easily fixed. After an update to Sonar, Drum Replacer and some other ARA effects stopped working, and I'd get the same error message you did when opening a project with instances of those effects. It's been a while, but IIRC, the system just needed a full VST re-scan. Regardless, search the forum for "missing ARA effects" or a similar wording, and you'll find the answer. I know this is where I found it....