Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns

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munmun
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2013/04/04 15:43:18 (permalink)

Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns


A possible future according to Gartner.  As windows becomes niche and marginalized, will Sonar still only work on Windows?  As desktop becomes relegated to specialty applications like graphics, etc will the cost of desktops increase?  Which would in turn push home recordists like me towards tablets to make music?  We are beyond an inflexion point.  Micrsoft has already lost the war.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/apr/04/microsoft-smartphones-tablets
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    cclarry
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 15:57:31 (permalink)
    Well I don't see that that happening...

    If anything it will drive the price of PC's and Laptops down...not up..

    Tablets are nothing more then Laptops that have been flattened out, for 
    the most part.

    iOS and Android, while viable for the portable market, aren't going
    to send the iMacs or PC's out of the picture in the near future..

    Microsoft has already "moved" into the portable world with Win 8....
    granted, late to the game, but still IN the game...

    And, according to the "experts" X-Box was pretty well out of the game 
    when the PS3 came along...but guess what?  It's still a BIG market share..
    and still a heavy contender...contrary to what the "pundits" said...
    So I certainly wouldn't look for the PC or Mac to be relegated to the "past" very soon...
    the reason the market share for "Tablets" is so high? 

    Most people have already bought PC's or Macs...so, because the iPads and
    Nexxus's are the new "thing"...that's what they're buying...

    BUT, stranger things have happened...


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    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 16:30:20 (permalink)
    I think the future is hybrid. A tablet on its own may not be the best tool for music production as is, but throw in some kind of dock w/ connectivity to a keyboard and mouse, a bigger screen... I mean, the reason why we cling to towers is power, connectivity and expandability. Given the equal amount of power, and admitting that we can hook up that power to other pieces of equipment and expand it, it is obvious that the traditional computer will become a thing of the past.

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    cclarry
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 16:35:28 (permalink)
    Rain


    I think the future is hybrid. A tablet on its own may not be the best tool for music production as is, but throw in some kind of dock w/ connectivity to a keyboard and mouse, a bigger screen... I mean, the reason why we cling to towers is power, connectivity and expandability. Given the equal amount of power, and admitting that we can hook up that power to other pieces of equipment and expand it, it is obvious that the traditional computer will become a thing of the past.

    THIS I agree with...


    If tablets can get the power of the PC/Mac Processor, Large SSD drives incorporated and run mainstream applications and connect
    to a "Dock" for keyboard and mouse and greater I/O...then I can see the Paradigm shift...as it would be a device for home

    or on the go...and that would certainly shift the game..


    But the price would also have to be competitive...and that just simply is not the case....YET...


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    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 17:24:11 (permalink)
    You know, I moved from a PC tower to a laptop because I had no other option with the tour. And my plan was to move back to a tower once we'd settled down again. But, you know what? I'm not so sure. For the stuff I do, the MacBook Pro/Logic combo delivers pretty much all what I need. Hooked to a bigger screen and w/ the addition of a mouse, and I'm pretty happy w/ it. If I planned on working U-He's Diva and D16 LuSH-101, things might be different. But I'm using native plugs 90% of the time, not to spare the CPU but because they're my favorite tools, anyway. I could probably do w/ a bit more horsepower - not that I miss it, but I'd probably take advantage of it. But a newer MacBook Pro would give me that - even if it's not the most powerful CPU. There will always be a more powerful machine anyway... As such, I'm really not sure I'll opt for a tower when I upgrade - in fact, more and more, I'm thinking iMac, Mac mini server or a new MacBook Pro.

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    cclarry
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 17:30:41 (permalink)
    I concur...

    I have the best of both worlds...I can pick up and go when I want....no muss no fuss...

    Here on my desk I'm connected to everything I need...

    Eventually I'd like to have an i7...but that's not happening anytime soon...
    and I'm fine with what I have...it get's the job done...


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    ohgrant
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 19:27:16 (permalink)
     Lost the war, no I think they gave up years ago. Sure seems like they have been keeping their eggs in the X-box basket since the first generation. I do believe there is a campaign to kill off the standard PC and it is being waged by m/s, Macintosh and Intel. I was reading that Intel plans to kill off the socketed processors in the next couple of generations. To the consumer that will probably mean no more custom built PC's. Not sure what AMD is going to do.
     Bad news for most of us I think. Great deal for them, with the small time specialized builders out of the picture or greatly reduced. A return to everything being totally proprietary and "no user serviceable parts inside" is soon to come I think and they want to get total control back of software and hardware distrubution and use...   

     
    I really think the next logical step in the evolution of the DAW is going to be more like an X-box but pro audio based with many features and uses for live and home recording use. 
     Instead of touch screen, motion/gesture controlled like on the Wii? Basic voice recognition “Sonar record",  "Sonar launch amplatube" ? 
     Take it on the road and you have all the effects comps and EQs you ever wanted? I believe all that and even more things I can't fathom are already possible today    
     
    I don't think portable devices are quite developed enough to do the number crunching many DAW users need simply because of heat. Every lap top I ever worked on underperformed its PC equal in a CPU or graphics benchmark simply because of throttling because of high temps. JMO 

      As far as Macs, since they are essentially the same nomenclature as a PC. I would be perfectly willing to buy a version of their OS they just don't sell it without their overpriced hardware. They're also not interested in the desktop war They have their eggs in the ithingy basket,  also JMO

     
    post edited by ohgrant - 2013/04/04 20:03:59

    Me
     
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    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 20:02:54 (permalink)
    Speaking of motion, here's a little something I stumbled upon recently. No idea how this could be made into something actually useful for DAW, but, who knows... http://logicblog.info/log...ol-equals-awesome.html

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    ohgrant
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 20:09:39 (permalink)
    Rain


    Speaking of motion, here's a little something I stumbled upon recently. No idea how this could be made into something actually useful for DAW, but, who knows... http://logicblog.info/logic-pro-blog/2013/01/06/leap-motion-controller-plus-bettertouchtool-equals-awesome.html

     Cool, and very cheap.
     
      If I were willing to work in WDM, I think I could use my Microsoft game voice to control just about anything that there is a keybord shortcut to in Sonar. I'm going to have to try that.

    Me
     
    #9
    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 20:10:56 (permalink)
    While the comparison between portable and traditional system will always be interesting, I dare ask when will it ever be enough? I mean, an iPad outperforms the machines I was using to create music for documentaries years ago. By far... My current MacBook Pro (actually an old 2010) does pretty much all I need it to do, and I rarely ever push the buffers higher than 64. My projects are usually anywhere between 40 to 60 tracks, w/ lots of Virtual Instruments... Now, I know that there are more powerful machines out there, but, honestly, I can't think of a time where I actually thought - dammit, why isn't my computer faster and more powerful? If I were scoring to movie or such, I'd buy another, more powerful one. But it's not even a concern whether I could or should buy the latest greatest baddest most powerful machine.

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    guitartrek
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/04 23:50:01 (permalink)
    Rain - you've really got me thinking about mac's lately.  I get a new laptop every 3 years - and this fall is time for a new one.  I'm thinking about a MacBook Pro. 

    But you've also got me thinking about Logic, which is scary.  Would I have enough patience and time to port over all my projects from Sonar to Logic?  Does Logic have everything that Sonar has and more?  Will Logic be around for the future?  Logic does look like a great product.
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    Glyn Barnes
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 00:33:35 (permalink)
    I think the prices of powerful computers, Windows or Mac is bound to rise. The format and OS of those computers is almost irrelevent. Its not a Windows v Mac debate.

    Th emass market has kept the cost of computer hardware and operating systems down. The vast majority of computer buyers only want to do Facebook, email and entertainment. Cheap portable devices that can also take pictures etc. will dominate the consumer market. Most business applications do not need much in the way of power either and a tablet in a docking station with cloud based applications and storage could fill most of those needs.

    As a result powerful computers which can be used for DAWs, serious video and photo editing, CAD and high end data processing will become neich products and be more expensive.

    The recently acquired DAW in my signature may be the last high spec one I will be able to afford.


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    trimph1
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 05:13:13 (permalink)
    mmmmmm....microsoft is also into tablets and smartphones.....

    The space you have will always be exceeded in direct proportion to the amount of stuff you have...Thornton's Postulate.

    Bushpianos
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    SongCraft
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 06:31:37 (permalink)
    I don't think Microsoft is under threat other than competition heating up.  IMO, competition is good news for the consumer and this will also continue to drive for greater development. 

    Desktop components will get lighter and smaller but at the same time, cheaper and more powerful and easier to setup. 

    Aleady there will be greatly enhance GUI workflows for starters; Leap Motion easily hooks up via USB and is cheap.

    Several years from now there will be improvements in monitor technology available. Greater quality and larger display at a lower price.... Because new monitors will use new amazing technologies that will be more efficient to manufacture, lighter yet stonger (reducing costs)  Compare back to decades ago and Google around now for the latest, there are some very interesting devepments in the works. 

    Apple vs PC, whatever floats ones boat, much the same in regards to DAW's. There are several really good hosts that can handle massive size projects and get the job done without a sweat. 

    Overall great developments on both sides of the fence. 

    Slight Con; technology is advancing at warp speed which means, 'upgrades' will be nessasary IF one wishes to keep up with the bleeding edge of technology.  And watch zombie movies on a 98" Air-Gesture display running Windows 13.sp2 or Mac Goliath 9.3 in full 3D surround holographic mode.... ARGHHHHH!! 



     
     
    #14
    Rob[at]Sound-Rehab
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 07:06:09 (permalink)
    Rain


    Speaking of motion, here's a little something I stumbled upon recently. No idea how this could be made into something actually useful for DAW, but, who knows... http://logicblog.info/logic-pro-blog/2013/01/06/leap-motion-controller-plus-bettertouchtool-equals-awesome.html

    this looks like the solution that will give me access to a 128 channel mixing console - this thingy on a flat wood board ... plus photographic memory that allows me to remember where each fader was ...
     
    just kidding, looks interesting at least; it is the proof that there will always be something new to supersede what's here.
     
    as regards the debate whether windows will vanish from the face of the earth or not: well, probably not, definitely not with a bang and most likely not within a few years - it's just been around for too long with too many people / systems depending on it.
     
    but - i believe that we will see dramatic changes in the home / project studio arena in the coming years (just think of all we got in the last 20 years that wasn't there before! sum that up and you call that a super dramatic change); one can safely assume further radical changes when thinking in terms of decades rather than software update cycles
     
    anyway, the past years were driven by a rather uncontrolled (almost cancer like) growth of hardare / software tools and toys. now pretty much all you can imagine is available at affordable prices, but to get these gadget work together in a professional manner it takes an expert to set-up and huge amounts of time to build and maintain a proper system as the entire world around your DAW just keeps updating, updating, updating ...
     
    with time being the most valuable asset there will be more room for "one shop solution" like e.g. buy your DAW fully set-up, ever functional and remotely maintained by service contract. whether or not this is all Cakewalk from hardware to software or 7 different brands combined by a smart reseller is not the point, but i'm sure if there'd such things available, quite a few would buy in (aren't we all sick of it working one day and all the sudden not the next day?) ... of course, all those not so commited or on a smaller budget are left to buy the iToys and Android apps or whatever and keep struggling with the latest and greatest technology while not being able to produce songs any more fluently and professionally than other did 10 years ago ...
     
    enough said. it's all rubbish anyway ;-)
     

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    Starise
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 12:29:46 (permalink)


      If we are only a few generations away from the devolving of the DAW, then maybe keeping what we have is a good idea. If it works and works well why change it? Parts will still be available for some time to come.

      I see the gradual elimination of the DAW as ohgrant and others have mentioned.Things are already at the point where a part time musician/engineer can record enough tracks to be content on basic devices including ipad, Galaxy etc.. 8 or 12 tracks....that's a band. This probably puts a smile on the face of any large commercial studio owner because it will force small operators to come to them for more intense work on their tracks because their devices can't do the heavy stuff. 

     I can't get away from the feeling that in this transition we are giving up something on behalf of the majority light user. 

     I agree though with the ideas on cloud based software and maybe even a "Sonar Lite" that can get most of the job done on a portable.No telling whats in the making as I type this.

     Adobe is already into cloud based software. For 19.95 a month I can have cloud based app access to all of their large programs. That's the problem though, it's a monthly program...miss a payment and no more cloud. If you pay a monthly fee to the Sonar cloud and it has your music files then you can't miss. I don't necessarily like this but this is where its headed IMO. This is good for software companies though because they have a more regular cash flow....not as much guessing their cash flow from month to month and quarter to quarter.
     

     Microsoft is never out of the game. They might play catch up but they can afford to wait and get it right.
     
    post edited by Starise - 2013/04/05 13:06:22

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    #16
    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 16:38:51 (permalink)
     @ Guitartrek

    The good thing about a Mac is that you can always run Windows and Sonar on it. That could make the transition easier. Fellow forumite Scott Lee has also been working on a self-contained solution which should allow to run Sonar directly under OSX, w/o the need for Bootcamp and Windows. Not entirely done yet, but that's one thing to keep an eye on.

    Granted, if you want the most raw power for your money, PC is a no-brainer. For me, I prefer a machine that meets my realistic needs while offering some overhead AND offers a more consistent and finite experience. 

    And that's what my Mac does - as much of a paradox as it can be considering the ridiculous cult around the Apple brand, the best thing I can tell you about my Mac is that the computer erases itself behind its purpose. When I bought my first PC in the late 90s, I only wanted to record and mix music. That's ALL I wanted. But I've had to learn an awful lot - so much that I ended up putting my own machines together. My Mac brought me to my starting point - I power it on and I make music - literally.

    Does Logic do all the Sonar does? Well, current version doesn't handle 32 Bit FP wave files, so that's one thing to consider. Freeze doesn't work like in Sonar - a frozen track is frozen solid - you can't edit it. But there are other different options that you get used to. It doesn't have the wave preview on the output or busses. No X-Ray view. And probably other similar things. BUT, it also does tons of things which Sonar doesn't, things, which, to me, are much more useful than any of the above features. That being said, we all have different needs and expectations.
     
    post edited by Rain - 2013/04/05 16:40:34

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    #17
    Kroneborge
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 18:07:48 (permalink)
    There was a big debate at the economist about this a bit ago, and I will say the same thing here that I did there.  The PC isn't going anywhere for a very long, long time (probably until they figure out how to do neural nets.).

    For any given state of technology, you will always be able to do more with a desktop than a laptop, and a laptop than a tablet.  For people that actually do work, and not surf just surf the internet a tablet is not a very good solution.  And even laptop aren't as good as a desktop (a mouse is much superior to a track pad IMO).

    So for all the people actually doing work (or are serious about their play), desktops are here to stay.  And it's not just graphic design,
    it's all your gamers, your music people, EVERYONE working in an office.    Could you imagine trying to write a proposal on a freaken tablet?  Shoot when I use excel I prefer two large monitors, and you'd better believe I'm using those hotkeys,.   And when I had to use a laptop because  I was traveling then I got a docking station, because laptops hamper your productivity (screen to small, keyboard off etc).




    Mathew

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    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/05 18:41:23 (permalink)
    Mathew - You can hook up a mouse to a laptop. And a monitor. ;)



    FWIW, I rarely touch the mouse. And for some purpose, the Mac's trackpad is far superior to the mouse. Especially w/ Logic. 

    And the sweet thing is, when we want to record drums or vocals, I can book time in a studio somewhere and finish my edits while we're on the plane on our way there... 

    Though the laptop isn't the most powerful machine around, it certainly is powerful enough to pull it off in many serious scenarios. Nowadays, every body talks like they need every possible options and the ability to run gazillions of tracks w/o ever bouncing anything ever... 

    One think we must keep in mind is that a tablet may not be adequate to accomplish what we want as of today. But the way we interact w/ software is likely to change - when I mix music, my ultimate goal is not to draw automation curves using a mouse - that's the METHOD. My goal is to have some passages played back louder or quieter. 

    Just like typing a report on a tablet isn't ideal. But whoever said that typing was the ultimate way of entering data... It's just a method, not the goal. And we often don't really make a distinction between the end itself and the means to get there.

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    #19
    Glyn Barnes
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/06 00:24:14 (permalink)
    Kroneborge

    So for all the people actually doing work (or are serious about their play), desktops are here to stay.  And it's not just graphic design,
    it's all your gamers, your music people, EVERYONE working in an office.    Could you imagine trying to write a proposal on a freaken tablet?  Shoot when I use excel I prefer two large monitors, and you'd better believe I'm using those hotkeys,.   And when I had to use a laptop because  I was traveling then I got a docking station, because laptops hamper your productivity (screen to small, keyboard off etc).
    At work my laptop is in a docking station, closed and out of the way at the side of my desk, I use a mouse and a full size keyboard and two 24" monitors. It not inconceivable that in the near future tablet could be used in such a setup with applications and storage cloud based.
     
    Its not a scenario I am looking forward too but I am sure it will happen for office applications. Some of my software is more techenical and demanding on resources so I think I will be laptop based for quite a while.


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    Glyn Barnes
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/06 00:26:49 (permalink)
    Rain



     

    .
    I see we use one common piece of equipment, at the right had side of you desk, next to the notepad.
    post edited by Glyn Barnes - 2013/04/06 00:31:03

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    Kroneborge
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/06 14:45:25 (permalink)
    The solution being to try and turn tablets into desktops? Sides, my fat fingers are too big to try and work in something like that, I always by the biggest tower I can find...


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    Rob[at]Sound-Rehab
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/06 14:56:15 (permalink)
    Glyn Barnes


    Rain 

    I see we use one common piece of equipment, at the right had side of you desk, next to the notepad.


    Same here, but just like with other special equipment, the latest may not be the greatest ... vintage rules ;-)

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    #23
    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/06 15:38:21 (permalink)
    Kroneborge


    The solution being to try and turn tablets into desktops? Sides, my fat fingers are too big to try and work in something like that, I always by the biggest tower I can find...

    Well, the tower itself doesn't do anything, does it? It's a shell, a host for components - often tucked somewhere where you can't even see and, more importantly hear it.


    Do you remember Apple's cubes? Darn fine desktop computers as far as I'm concerned - maybe a tad too avant-guardistes. Or the iMac - that's a desktop. And extremely successful one this time. Though they both break away from the traditional "desktop" design.


    My point being that, we can see it the other way around. Eventually, if someone wishes, he'll be able to unhook the core of it's computer and access everything via its own screen. Take it to a different location, hook it to another dock and resume work. That's the potential of the tablet.


    FWIW, I don't own a tablet. And we're not there yet. But it'll be interesting to see. 

    TCB - Tea, Cats, Books...
    #24
    AT
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/06 16:28:57 (permalink)
    In a few years your tablet will smoke today's tablet.  Nature of the beast.

    In the meanwhile maybe someone can get apple (or MS) to sponser a tablet orchestra.  That would be cool.  A bit arty, but I'd see it.

    @

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    there came forth little children out of the city, and mocked him, and said unto him, Go up, thou bald head; go up, thou bald head.
    24 And he turned back, and looked on them, and cursed them in the name of the Lord. And there came forth two she bears out of the wood, and tare forty and two children of them.
    #25
    munmun
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/10 18:20:20 (permalink)
    More sign of trouble for desktops:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22103079
    #26
    Kroneborge
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/12 16:56:48 (permalink)
    AT


    In a few years your tablet will smoke today's tablet.  Nature of the beast.

    In the meanwhile maybe someone can get apple (or MS) to sponser a tablet orchestra.  That would be cool.  A bit arty, but I'd see it.

    @


    In a few years they might have a tablet as powerful as my current desktop (although I bet it till be closer to 6-8 years) but then my new desktop will still get that tabelt's but, and the super duper extra analog synths coming out will still require even more CPU


    Mathew

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    #27
    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/12 17:14:05 (permalink)
    I don't know. Remember when computers used to be as big as this room I'm in? If you'd told someone back then that someday you'd have as much processing power in something smaller, they might have thought: then can you imagine how much more powerful a computer as big as the room will be?

    TCB - Tea, Cats, Books...
    #28
    Rain
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/13 16:12:59 (permalink)
    Another thing is that some developers seem to love the simplicity of coding for iOS. 

    I just read in my newsfeed that Korg had announced its Electribe app (no regular pc/mac version announced as far as I know) and that SampleTank is now compatible w/ AudioBus. Things are definitely moving fast.

    TCB - Tea, Cats, Books...
    #29
    dmbaer
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    Re:Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns 2013/04/13 18:24:35 (permalink)
    Rain

    Remember when computers used to be as big as this room I'm in?
    I certainly do.  I wrote my first line of code (it had to be FORTRAN, I guess) in 1966.  It was run on a computer that was housed in an enormous room and that machine probably cost about as much as a commercial jetliner.  It was no doubt less powerful the first PC I bought over 25 years later, an Intel 286.
     
    Now that I think of it, between my two PCs, my iPad and my iPod, I think it's safe to claim I've got more computing power in my home right now than was in the entire Pentagon in 1966.
     
    What an amazing thing to have witnessed this history!

    #30
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