am I interpreting the documentation incorrectly or is Rapture behaving contrary to how the doc. says it should behave in this regard?
I've been working with Rapture since it came out, and yet there are still some parameter-specific rules that I don't quite grasp. Certainly, there are exceptions to (or conditions that affect) a strict "add/subtract" behavior that one might expect; depending on the Modulator.
With panning, I suspect that some type of 'pan law' comes into play near hard left or right; much like the Width control compensates levels as you approach a mono mixdown of two stereo channels. I also have a theory ... As (some) parameter values exceed the maximum allowable value in real-world units, the remainder 'wraps around' to keep it in a valid value range.
Here's an example: Put together a patch exactly as you have described above (Matrix 'slot' and all)
Now add a Pan LFO with the following values:
Waveform: Random Bipolar
Status: On
Freq: 0.00
Sync: n/a
Delay: n/a
Fade: n/a
Depth: 100%
A Freq value of 0.00 will generate a random value on each note-on, based on the current Depth value. On paper, you would think that this kind of combined routing might skew the probabilities in unexpected ways. But it's closer to the distribution that you were looking for above; quite possibly with a higher occurrence of hard left & hard right.
Any analysis of 'random' through observation is going to have a subjective quality to it. But I do recall asking Rene point-blank on how the random values were generated. His answer (and I'm paraphrasing) was, "As random as random can be". Something about being based on a formula utilizing the elapsed time from an atomic clock ...
Not sure that did much for answering your question. It's more along the lines of "I'm right there beside you on this one."