ORIGINAL: droddey
And it finally struck me that I was failing to make a point explicitly that I probably should have... When discussing the percentages, I'm referring to the market of currently non-committed customers, i.e. the future market. Talking about the current set of DAW owners is kind of an iffy proposition. To get one of those, you have to actually make them leave their current product. That's a lot harder row to hoe and it makes the existing owner set of another platform probably not so much of a lucrative market. You have to be WAY better than other product to get people to give up their vested time and interests in that product and switch over, not just as good (generally.)
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I'm sure it works the other way as well. I doubt that SONAR is so much better than anything on the Mac side that lots of people who already have a Mac would switch over. If SONAR was ported to the Mac, some percentage of existing DAW customers would probably select it. But that's a one time benefit, and the size of it is pretty arguable. Whereas the ongoing benefit, wrt to new customers, would more likely be significantly tilted towards the Windows world, because there's just a lot more potential new customers who are likely to be Windows users.
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I really don't understand your insistence on this point. I'm going to state why I
have a different view of this and I'd prefer if we can then try to let this part of the thread die out.
You are claiming, without any evidence, that future musicians will predominantly be running Windows. As
I've stated, I own a business that sells music gear and I'm just not seeing that. I also follow this from a Wall Street
point of view. According to Wall Street analysts, Macs have been gaining market share over the past few
years, and many Mac purchases are going to first time users of the Mac platform. Windows is currently at
the beginning of a very major cycle with the release of Vista, while Mac is at the end of a cycle, a few
months from a major new release. Yet Mac sales remain robust, to the surprise of many analysts.
The success of the ipod creates what Wall Street calls the "halo effect" which makes ipod owners aware of
Macs and more likely to buy Macs. More than half of Mac purchases last year were to newcomers to the Mac
platform. A "halo effect 2" is expected to result from the iPhone. But I believe the halo effect is even stronger
for musicians.
Newcomers on Mac typically start out with GarageBand, which ships for free with every new Mac. It's not
a pro app, but it's no toy either. It comes with a good selection of high quality soft synths and effects, it's
fairly capable, it's stable, and it's extremely easy to use. Most people can start using GarageBand within a
few minutes without even consulting the docs, even as first time users. Obviously, GarageBand is going
to recognize the built in audio on any Mac it ships with. So you can buy a Mac, and
literally within minutes you can be creating songs, using the built in audio in the computer, without any
additional software or hardware, except your midi controller. It's actually a fairly compelling situation. As
these people hit the limits of GarageBand, many follow the natural upgrade path to pro sequencing software
and hardware on Mac.
My business sells M-Audio gear among other stuff. Now, in its core areas, M-Audio is kicking the competition's
asses in the low end market, where Sonar is probably most popular. Nobody sells anywhere near as many keyboard
controllers or audio interfaces, etc. So M-Audio sales are a pretty good indication of what's going on. Now, when
Apple released GarageBand, sales of some of M-Audio's keyboard controllers went out of control, just off the charts.
An M-Audio rep told me they believe the Keystation 61 sold more units that month than any other controller in history.
And it has continued ever since to be the most popular midi controller on the market (far outselling the E-mu Xboards,
and higher end controllers from Roland, etc.). It's a pretty good inference that a large number of those Keystation 61's
and similar controllers are going to newcomers running Macs. So M-Audio got very interested in Apple. You see all this
M-Audio gear if you go in an Apple store. They even have a control surface specifically for GarageBand. Do you know what it
takes to bring a hardware device to market? Would M-Audio would create a control surface for GarageBand
if they weren't aware of a lot of use?