I never realised how much you guys across the pond disliked our very own Piers Moron.
 
I absolutely love this calm, reasoned debate involving the great man: Piers Morgan + Alex Jones
 
He certainly knows which buttons to push.
 
 
 

sharke


1) There is no evidence to assume that western civilization has reached its "peak." 
2) Yes, civilizations have come and gone. But that doesn't mean that western civilization is on it's way out. The number of civilizations we're talking about in history is way too small to be any kind of reliable data set. 
3) Human nature is also quite wonderful. In 200 years after the industrial revolution, we managed to more than double our average life expectancy, simply by the application of our minds to the problem of human survival. That's why I cannot take these doom and gloom prophecies seriously. They all seem to be of the kind "look at this graph which shows some kind of decline, extrapolate it 50 years hence at the same rate of decline and OMG WE'LL ALL BE DEAD BY 2050!" A lot can happen in the way of scientific advancement in just a few years. I am very confident about mankind solving all problems of hunger, poverty etc. What the world needs is the further spread of democracy and capitalism. Nothing has improved living conditions more than these two things. 

Your point 3, whilst true, also exposes what to my mind is mankinds greatest problem of all - too many people, living longer & longer, all competing for ever dwindling resources.


The market economy was always based on virtually endless supplies of food, shelter & clothing.


With the global banking infrastructure in turmoil & tatters, to my mind it could signify the beginning of the end.


When does that ship leave? I'm on it

3) ...we managed to more than double our average life expectancy, simply by the application of our minds to the problem of human survival.






Can you verify this? I think you will find that this is misinformation. 


Average life expectancy stats, when stripped of death at childbirth incidents, which is something that has improved dramatically, are much closer than is popularly assumed.


I'm not going to go to trouble of proving it... but I suggest to you that if you wish to use this in your argument that sooner or later someone will point out that this is not accurate and will be willing to prove it. 


You might want to reconsider using this idea in your presentation.




very best,
mike 

mike_mccue


3) ...we managed to more than double our average life expectancy, simply by the application of our minds to the problem of human survival.






Can you verify this? I think you will find that this is misinformation. 

I think 'doubled' may be pushing it, but it's essentially correct. Advances in public health after the Industrial Revolution have certainly raised  life expectancy..maybe 20-40%. 


Going a lot further back, if you made it to your teens in Ancient Rome, you would probably still have checked out before your 50th Birthday.

mike_mccue


3) ...we managed to more than double our average life expectancy, simply by the application of our minds to the problem of human survival.






Can you verify this? I think you will find that this is misinformation. 


Average life expectancy stats, when stripped of death at childbirth incidents, which is something that has improved dramatically, are much closer than is popularly assumed.


I'm not going to go to trouble of proving it... but I suggest to you that if you wish to use this in your argument that sooner or later someone will point out that this is not accurate and will be willing to prove it. 


You might want to reconsider using this idea in your presentation.




very best,
mike 

I think the average life expectancy in America in 1800 was something like 35.  Globally, the effect is even more pronounced. This is one of many similar graphs online:





Nor do I think it's invalid to include death at childbirth. Are you talking about the death of the woman during birth, or the child? Either way, the improvement after the Industrial Revolution was staggering. I think we take current living conditions somewhat for granted. In Britain, for instance, life was pretty grim before the Industrial Revolution, and it was fairly commonplace for kids to die before age 10. In the 80 or so years after 1780 the population of Britain almost tripled. 


Another interesting stat I read (but can't find it now) went something (approximately!) like this: It took hundreds of thousands of years for the human population to reach one billion. After the Industrial Revolution, successive billions were added in 100 years, then 75, then 50 etc (actual number of years is different but I can't remember....you get the idea though!). This is without a doubt the greatest achievement of any species on Earth. No other species has been able to improve its living prospects so dramatically through the application of thought and action. 

jamesg1213

mike_mccue


3) ...we managed to more than double our average life expectancy, simply by the application of our minds to the problem of human survival.






Can you verify this? I think you will find that this is misinformation. 

I think 'doubled' may be pushing it, but it's essentially correct. Advances in public health after the Industrial Revolution have certainly raised  life expectancy..maybe 20-40%. 


Going a lot further back, if you made it to your teens in Ancient Rome, you would probably still have checked out before your 50th Birthday.

50 is a little ambitious. Try something like 30-35. 

Bristol_Jonesey

sharke


1) There is no evidence to assume that western civilization has reached its "peak." 
2) Yes, civilizations have come and gone. But that doesn't mean that western civilization is on it's way out. The number of civilizations we're talking about in history is way too small to be any kind of reliable data set. 
3) Human nature is also quite wonderful. In 200 years after the industrial revolution, we managed to more than double our average life expectancy, simply by the application of our minds to the problem of human survival. That's why I cannot take these doom and gloom prophecies seriously. They all seem to be of the kind "look at this graph which shows some kind of decline, extrapolate it 50 years hence at the same rate of decline and OMG WE'LL ALL BE DEAD BY 2050!" A lot can happen in the way of scientific advancement in just a few years. I am very confident about mankind solving all problems of hunger, poverty etc. What the world needs is the further spread of democracy and capitalism. Nothing has improved living conditions more than these two things. 

Your point 3, whilst true, also exposes what to my mind is mankinds greatest problem of all - too many people, living longer & longer, all competing for ever dwindling resources.


The market economy was always based on virtually endless supplies of food, shelter & clothing.


With the global banking infrastructure in turmoil & tatters, to my mind it could signify the beginning of the end.


When does that ship leave? I'm on it

Of course finite resources are a problem - they always have been. However, this is a problem that man has gotten better and better at solving, and no doubt will continue to improve. I don't think it's that much of a problem - unlike many I don't see some kind of impending catastrophe (remember Paul Ehrlich's The Population Bomb?). Science is advancing, technology becomes smaller and more efficient, we will find ways to solve our problems. After all, the Earth has not and will not change in mass. It's the same lump of matter it was 100,000 years ago. Granted, we move matter around and change it into different forms, but virtually every particle of matter that was here 100,000 years ago is still here. Sure, we'll run out of fossil fuels eventually, but I have every confidence that we'll solve the problem of renewable energy way before that. 


I do not subscribe to the "mankind is doomed" mindset. Honestly, the number of people who walk around thinking that everything is horrible and we're on the brink of oblivion and nothing is worth it....I do not know how they get through the day! Cheer up people 

So it's settled then? End of the world in 2050!



Good to know.

Good to know.

I'll either be dead or pushin' 100 and won't know what's goin' on anyway, so no worries.

.

I remember times like in the middle of a tune I'd just completely go blank.
Didn't know what the song was...more less what key.

Sometimes while driving I start thinking and get somewhere and think, I don't remember
driving the last few blocks....and wonder if cruise control has anything to do with it.

I started reading this thread and...thought I'd post what I was thinking and wound up
checking my keyboard....it has real nice blue backlighting and one can make different areas different
colors. That feature will probably outlast every other.

...color fades over time, I think.