You have to wonder how such predictions are made. Does someone take a ruler and extend a chart of some existing trend? By that method, you'd have confidently predicted in 1973 that by now every person on the planet would be listening to 8-tracks.
I do not own a smart phone, but my wife does. I hate her phone, but she loves it and is as attached to it as any toddler to a teddy bear. Diff'rent strokes.
For me, the promise of all the computing power you need in your shirt pocket is being oversold. Does anybody really watch football on a 3.5" screen like they show in the TV commercials?