stevec
I think the last few posts bring up a good point... Perhaps the question is more like "which DAWs will be around in seven years.... for which target markets?". Live audio recording? Personal studio based audio + VSTi? DJ/remix? EDM? Sound for picture? Post?
Something tells me that non only would the answer differ from category to category, but the primary DAWs to choose from in each category already vary.
You may be right. But that is not how other platform markets have progressed. The natural course as complex platforms approach maturity is
CONSOLIDATION. We don't have one web browser for visiting retail sites and another web browser to look at government sites. It is just one platform that serves all markets. And those that never achieved critical mass (or had critical mass but lost it) may still technically be alive, but certainly not thriving.
Can you still buy a phone that has Symbian? I bet they are sold somewhere, but they certainly aren't thriving, nor is Blackberry. Nokia and Motorola were huge just 4 years ago.
I may be off in my time-line of 7 years. Perhaps the DAWs are not as close to maturity as I think they are.
The action is moving up the stack to the VSTs. The high end VSTs already cost a lot more than the DAWs themselves. That's where I see the strong market segmentation. A commercial studio might be willing to spend $5000 or more on all the high-end VSTs, whereas a hobbyist will prefer a "pretty good" set of VSTs that are bargain priced. And because a VST supplier doesn't have to bear the cost of the platform, they can afford to specialize their VSTs for different markets (rock bands, acoustic, live concerts, Gregorian chants, whatever.)