telecharge
I'm all for a healthy debate, and I'm not really surprised at the pushback, but the amount of rancor over the suggestion of a basic, integrated sampler seems a bit much.
I don't think it's rancor, it's I think it's more like people saying "if there are great alternatives for free, why insist that Cakewalk re-invent the wheel when they could spend their resources on something
uniquely useful?" I can understand why someone who doesn't get, say, some matrix view fixes because CW was off re-inventing the sampler might get upset.
But...although speculation is always fun, I think we’ve reached a point in the conversation where it’s time for some facts.
First of all, the assumption that Cakewalk
isn’t working on beats-oriented or notation features is quite simply false. They are…so let’s stick a fork in that one. As to when they’ll appear, I do believe that Cakewalk is correct to prioritize program elements that affect as many different types of users as possible. But at some point, they’ll be done and…we’ll see what happens next.
Second, the “beats” people saying “If only SONAR had more beats tools, it would appeal to FL Studio and Ableton users” has the same validity as people who say “if only SONAR had great notation, it would cause Cubase users to switch.” Neither one makes sense in the context of today’s music software market.
The concept of “market share” is essentially meaningless. What’s valid is looking at both
unit share (percentage of the total universe of products in that market) and
dollar share (the percentage of the total universe of revenue that market receives). Unit share
may help a company, but dollar share is what keeps a company alive. For example Garageband has a huge market share on the Mac because it ships with the Mac for free, but it also probably has close to 0% dollar share. A heavily-pirated program will have a unit share that’s way out of proportion with dollar share.
The recording software market is a declining market. Because it’s not being fueled by a lot of new users, taking away overall market share from other companies is another way to fuel growth. But, it’s not easy to get people to switch.
I can’t give a lot of stats because the material from market research firms is proprietary. But I can give some generalities. Avid has about five times the dollar share of
any other DAW company in this industry. So for any company that wants to take dollar share, Avid is the most logical target because that’s where the dollar share is. Everyone else is fighting it out at a much lower level, and there are more similarities than differences in dollar share among those contenders than you might think. The good news for Cakewalk is that in a declining market, SONAR has managed to hold its own.
As to the actual growth of EDM, the global EDM market is now worth 7.1 billion dollars,
60% more than it was only three years ago. It truly has reached the mainstream only relatively recently. However, google search trends show the trend for EDM is flattening and actually declining (at 90% of its peak), whereas pop—a genre for which SONAR has a good fit—has gone up a relative 50% in the past month alone.
Long-term, though, bear in mind that EDM is the only genre that has undergone
significant growth since 2009.
Now, another stat. For 2015, shares of streams by genre in the US was
21% hip-hop,
18% rock,
15% pop,
9% Latin,
5% dance/EDM, and
4% country (with the rest as "other" - classical, jazz, folk, new age, etc.). So if SONAR wants to go after a particular musical genre, rock, pop, hip-hop, and Latin—for all of which SONAR is well-suited—are where the action is, which mirrors other aspects of the market (e.g., CD sales, or rather, what’s left of them). Now, this doesn’t
at all negate that EDM has experienced significant growth in the past few years, and continues to do so, particularly internationally in places like Viet Nam, the Philippines, etc. But when you look at it in a totality of
all music, it remains a niche—a healthy niche to be sure, and one that can likely support Ableton, FL Studio, and Reason. But can it add significant numbers to SONAR, given how the former three applications are firmly entrenched, and the genre is flattening? IMHO, it’s doubtful at best.
And for those who have opinions about “old people,” on this subject I have stats only for 2014, but interest in EDM on YouTube (the world’s single largest music delivery platform) among 35 to 49-year-olds grew 80%. You could argue that’s because they just became aware of its existence so no wonder there’s interest, but that’s consistent with helping to account for the explosive growth over the past three years.
It's obvious I'm a
huge EDM fan, so I'm not saying EDM's minority status makes me happy. But I have to live in a fact-based world...and think accordingly.