abacab
Anderton
sharke
A large part of the DAW market these days is kids who want to make hip hop or EDM or other electronic based modern styles in their bedrooms on their laptops. And I think where Sonar loses out is that before these kids have even chosen a DAW, they are searching for things like "how to make a beat" on YouTube and they're watching a bunch of cool tutorials which show how to do it easily using stock tools in DAW's like Ableton and FL. So by the time they've watched a few of those to whet their appetites, they've already made up their mind which DAW they want, and it's not Sonar.
I agree that what you're describing is an extremely likely scenario. If SONAR could add features that help people make/compose music, and do so in a way that would be comfortable to both the "beats" people and the more traditional recording folks, I think that would help retain existing users and possibly even get some new ones (specifically, the people who find "beats"-oriented programs overly limiting past a certain point).
To me, programs like FL Studio are designed more for a "composer" mentality whereas SONAR, Pro Tools, etc. are designed more for a "player" mentality.
Maybe they could tie in a basic sampler, with a real integrated wave editor. I think all users would welcome an enhanced wave editor tool, which could be useful to the "players", as well as the beat producers.
Then allow it to tie in directly to Matrix View. Take your waves, slice them up, and drop them into Matrix cells in one smooth process ...
Ironically enough, the simple "tracker" program OctaMed which I used to make Aphex-Twin style beats in the early 90's, made it easier to edit waveforms and chop beats than the stock Sonar tools. Even though I was having to take the loop size in bytes, divide it by 8 and then sit and work out the start/end points for each slice in bytes (with a calculator)!
Geist has beat chopping right. You just load a sample with "slice" selected and it automatically slices at the transients and distributes the slices to its pads, grouping them in terms of kick/snare/hat etc. You can adjust the transient sensitivity to get more or less slices, or you can choose to divide the loop up into equal parts. It then recreates the loop perfectly in its step sequencer, applying small offsets for any hits that come slightly before or after the beat.
Kontakt is the industry standard sampler, but when it comes to chopping up loops (which is a major part of sampling culture), it's overly complex and fiddly. Cakewalk really wouldn't need to go overboard on a stock sampler, just a few chopping and mapping functions along with some basic settings for each pad (like pitch, velocity sensitivity, maybe a simple filter, and ability to select an audio output).