Kalle Rantaaho
Our only hope is that the standard of living in China, Indonesia, Vietnam etc. rises quickly enough to make it again competitive to manufacture things in the west.
The problem is that the standard of living in much of China is already on a par with the West, at least for those with the money. Wealthy Chinese can and do buy lots of Western luxury products. Perfumes, luxury cars, designer clothing, and Swiss watches have not had a big impact on improving US wages. The cost of living in China is about half the cost of living in the US, but manufacturing wages in China are about a tenth of US wages so disposable income is much less. Farm income is close to third world levels. The vast majority of Chinese are, like the vast majority of US workers, going to be buying cheaply manufactured goods, because it is what they can afford. Currently that means Chinese goods, but as manufacturing wages increase in China, they are moving jobs to Viet Nam, Cambodia etc. where wages are relatively low. As Chinese wages get even higher, they have the incentive to use the profits they have been making to automate their factories and improve the productivity of Chinese labor even more, again increasing the relative cost of US labor. Perhaps there is a future for US factories staffed with industrial robots requiring only a small number of specialist mechanics to operate, but in all likelihood, the robots will be manufactured in China. It is a myth that the Chinese are incapable of doing the education and invention needed to replace US design companies like Apple, but even if they do stay dependent on a small number of foreign design and distribution specialists, there is no good news for US labor. The flat world is clearly tilted away from the West.