So we did our experiment yesterday with an improvised drum shield. The results were inconclusive.
I used an A-weighted SPL meter to compare levels under a variety of combinations: drums only vs. full band, quiet songs vs. loud rockers, sticks vs. hot rods, each repeated with and without the shield.
We all agreed that the drums sounded better and the drummer played better with sticks rather than hot rods. The hoped-for result would have been that the shield brought the volume down enough that he could play with sticks all the time. Sadly, that was not the case.
Here are a couple examples of my measurements. These songs were chosen because they're dynamic, with quiet parts and big crescendos.
J.Joplin's Piece of My Heart: 96 dB - 109 dB w/o shield, 94 dB - 108 dB with shield
Summertime: 90 dB - 105 dB w/o shield, 91 dB - 104 dB with shield
So the overall volume change was trivial, falling within the margin of normal playing variability.
However, what I couldn't measure with the SPL meter was the sense of mix balance. With the shield up and using hot rods, the drums sat much better in the mix.
Bottom line is that while drum shields do help, they are far from a panacea. Hot rods over sticks provided a much greater volume reduction than the shields.
Our jury-rigged shield was made from old windows and duct tape and was only 8' in length. A proper 5-panel store-bought shield would be 10' in length and possibly made of a slightly denser material, and therefore possibly more effective. Enough to justify $400? Don't know.