Thinking of upgrading to X from 8.5 but leary if a new verision is on the horizon.

I'd say there was a 50% chance of it coming out in time for Xmas... but that drops to 10% if we don't get an announcement on Nov 1st.
 
I'd put money on it coming out within the next 6 months, however.
 
Given that you are still on 8.5, I'd recommend upgrading. By the time you have recovered from the shock, you might get a nice upgrade price to X4 prior to X5's release.

Check the other 5 threads about the timing, there's probably an encrypted date in there somewhere :)

From one of those threads:-
 

dantarbill
While at AES, Cakewalk's Dan Gonzales told me X4 would be out "by the end of the year".  Depending on what gotchas happen at the tail end of the development and release cycle...that could still be a pretty squishy target...but at least that was his expectation.

Sonar X1: December 8th 2010 (announced november 1st)
Sonar X2: September 20th 2012 (announce august 1st)
Sonar X3: September 28th 2013 (announced august 1st)
 
Sonar X4: December 10th 2014 (announcing november 1st)

 
 
 

I'd be tempted to wait even though I have no idea of when it's coming out. The X-series has just gotten more and more polished with each release and I'm truly excited to find out what the Bakers have in store for X4. I'd say, unless you're having serious problems with 8.5 that are preventing you from making music, then stick it out.

Probably only once they've reconfigured it to a subscrition model.

I'll say this: I will feel safe to upgrade to the next version when it comes out, and my speculation is, unless there's some pretty major new features being added late in the process, it's surely got to be close. 
 
As far as subscription models, I personally don't see that being deployed before the next version. And to be honest, I think a subscription model would be great, if it's more like the Netflix model, where you can pause it. If the DAW were able to "check" its activation to enable the Audio Engine, that could be a great way to allow new users to get visually and ergonomically oriented with Sonar without allowing them to actually use the software. Then, activation could be based on a monthly subscription. So, for bands that want to record themselves, but do so only a semi-annual basis, they can rent the activation for two months out of the year, for say, $10-20/mo. the longer your subscription runs, the better your discount (or more subscriptions). I'm basing the latter on the GotoMeeting pricing model. 
 
If the subscriber buys a year's activation, it would run, say $99/yr, $149/2yrs, $199/3yrs. Month-to-month would be, say $19.99/mo. ($479.76 for 24 mos.) You can see that compared to a one-time $399 for Producer, these look attractive. Sure, the long-term users would receive a discount, but you could attract many more occasional users to offset that discount, awarding the long-term users the higher appreciation. 
 
btw, $12.99/mo. for Xn Studio and $9.99/mo. for basic Xn.
 
The software is downloaded and installed, but requires Internet access to validate subscription.

brconflict
If the subscriber buys a year's activation, it would run, say $99/yr, $149/2yrs, $199/3yrs. Month-to-month would be, say $19.99/mo. ($479.76 for 24 mos.) You can see that compared to a one-time $399 for Producer, these look attractive. Sure, the long-term users would receive a discount, but you could attract many more occasional users to offset that discount, awarding the long-term users the higher appreciation. 
 
btw, $12.99/mo. for Xn Studio and $9.99/mo. for basic Xn.
 
The software is downloaded and installed, but requires Internet access to validate subscription.

I've been a Cakewalk user for more than a decade and upgraded regularly whenever new versions came out. If Cakewalk moved to a subscription model, that's the last they'd ever hear from me. I refuse to use any DAW that doesn't provide a perpetual license model. Dongles are annoying enough, having software call home to see if it's still licensed is even worse. Subscription licensing is probably the single worst thing Cakewalk could possibly do and would most likely cause them to lose the majority of their loyal customers.

brconflict
I'll say this: I will feel safe to upgrade to the next version when it comes out, and my speculation is, unless there's some pretty major new features being added late in the process, it's surely got to be close. 
 
As far as subscription models, I personally don't see that being deployed before the next version. And to be honest, I think a subscription model would be great, if it's more like the Netflix model, where you can pause it. If the DAW were able to "check" its activation to enable the Audio Engine, that could be a great way to allow new users to get visually and ergonomically oriented with Sonar without allowing them to actually use the software. Then, activation could be based on a monthly subscription. So, for bands that want to record themselves, but do so only a semi-annual basis, they can rent the activation for two months out of the year, for say, $10-20/mo. the longer your subscription runs, the better your discount (or more subscriptions). I'm basing the latter on the GotoMeeting pricing model. 
 
If the subscriber buys a year's activation, it would run, say $99/yr, $149/2yrs, $199/3yrs. Month-to-month would be, say $19.99/mo. ($479.76 for 24 mos.) You can see that compared to a one-time $399 for Producer, these look attractive. Sure, the long-term users would receive a discount, but you could attract many more occasional users to offset that discount, awarding the long-term users the higher appreciation. 
 
btw, $12.99/mo. for Xn Studio and $9.99/mo. for basic Xn.
 
The software is downloaded and installed, but requires Internet access to validate subscription.

brconflict
I'll say this: I will feel safe to upgrade to the next version when it comes out, and my speculation is, unless there's some pretty major new features being added late in the process, it's surely got to be close. 
 
As far as subscription models, I personally don't see that being deployed before the next version. And to be honest, I think a subscription model would be great, if it's more like the Netflix model, where you can pause it. If the DAW were able to "check" its activation to enable the Audio Engine, that could be a great way to allow new users to get visually and ergonomically oriented with Sonar without allowing them to actually use the software. Then, activation could be based on a monthly subscription. So, for bands that want to record themselves, but do so only a semi-annual basis, they can rent the activation for two months out of the year, for say, $10-20/mo. the longer your subscription runs, the better your discount (or more subscriptions). I'm basing the latter on the GotoMeeting pricing model. 
 
If the subscriber buys a year's activation, it would run, say $99/yr, $149/2yrs, $199/3yrs. Month-to-month would be, say $19.99/mo. ($479.76 for 24 mos.) You can see that compared to a one-time $399 for Producer, these look attractive. Sure, the long-term users would receive a discount, but you could attract many more occasional users to offset that discount, awarding the long-term users the higher appreciation. 
 
btw, $12.99/mo. for Xn Studio and $9.99/mo. for basic Xn.
 
The software is downloaded and installed, but requires Internet access to validate subscription.

 Based on that idea,  I won't be using it anymore.  I could care less if Adobe or Avid does it but they are pricey software to begin with.  Cakewalk has always made generous offers for upgrades.  I started on Music Creator, then a great deal to upgrade to Home Studio, then to Home Studio XL, then Sonar 2 and Sonar 2 XL.   They only upgrade I missed was Sonar 6.  
 
 Sonar X3 PE is still a very affordable app for what is included and for what it does.  Live costs as much and maybe more.  You get a lot of proprietary stuff in Live and throw in another $300 for the Live Suite, you are around $800.  Studio One doesn't have all of the toys compared to PE (there's no staff view either).  Reaper sells you an app for cheap so you can buy other VSTs.  (no subscription model and they update like crazy)  Then there's Reason a proprietary app that isn't tailored to genres like Country Music.   There's also Tracktion ($60). FL Studio with lifetime updates.
 
A subscription model would be the death of Sonar.  There would be better economical choices.  Sonar and Netflix in the same line of thinking is nothing but absurdity.   I know Avid Media Composer is a monthly subscription but if Sony ever comes out with Vegas for Mac, there's going to be more financial hurt to Avid.