Which DAWs do you think will be the survivors?

I hope this thread can avoid being a beeching session about patch X2B.  This is a more strategic question than what happens in the next couple of months about a handful of irritating bugs.
 
A DAW is a platform, in the same sense that an operating system or web browser is a platform.  There is a life cycle that follows platforms.  In the early days, there are many competitors, each touting new ideas and different ways to do common tasks.  But over time, the best of those techniques and solutions find their way into ALL platforms, resulting in very little real difference.
 
With operating systems, they all do security, memory management, and have administrative tools.  And they all claim high performance.  It really is about the apps, not the OS.  OS suppliers still try to remain relevant by adding things like that tiled UI in Windows 8.  But there comes a point where that just isn't very interesting to customers.  And at that point, the second-tier platforms dry up and fade away.  How many operating systems have there been over the years?  For most people, today it boils down to 2: Windows and Linux/OS-X.
 
Likewise in web browsers.  Tell me in 25 words or less why my life would be transformed if I switched from Firefox to Chrome?  Firefox, Chrome, and IE are virtually identical, as far as I am concerned, and all the others (Opera, Mosaic, Netscape, et al) have disappeared or are well on their way.  It is not about the browsers.  It is about the websites.
 
DAWs as a platform are a little earlier in the maturity cycle yet, but it is obvious that there is convergence happening.  They all do loops.  They all do VST effects.  They all do bus routing.  They all combine MIDI, synths, and recorded audio.  Yes, there are still some significant differences, but it really is becoming more about the VSTs than the DAW itself.  That's why I chose SONAR.  X2 Producer gave me the best collection of great Synths and effects for the lowest cost.
 
So if you accept this premise, at least for sake of argument, it follows that the world will not need or want 15 DAWs that ultimately become practically identical.  And because this is complex software, the market will not provide enough income to keep 15 DAW suppliers in business.
 
So my question is, looking ahead (say) seven years, if the market has settled down to four survivors, which ones will they be and why?
 
 

as above, as well as FL.

Bitwig!!!!
 
naw, j/k.
 
The only DAW that I have my doubts about is Studio One.  I've toyed with the idea of selling mine (again), but it's practically worthless secondhand.  A few months ago, I put it up for sale on the KVR classifieds for $175 and got nothing but a couple of very lowball offers.  I've been watching the ads for it closely and nobody seems to be interested in it, unless the price is ridiculously low.  I'm guessing that most people have tried it thinking that the grass must be greener over there, only to find out that there's very little grass to be had with S1.

I can't answer this without seeing some sales numbers. Anyone know where I can find some?

Hi Bliix,
that´s a good question,
but I remember several discussions on other forums about 
the sales numbers of music-sequencer- and afaik there never has been a chart for that!

ProTools  & Cubase because of it's time on the market and ubiquitous nature.
Logic & Sonar as their by their defiance in not being cross-platform and some depend on that purist ideal.
Reaper, because of it's cult like following that will probably never let it die. (And this is the one to keep an eye on for that very reason).
 
And I think Notion is still a viable notation software as much as the other three too.
Especially considering you can crossgrade from it to Finale and save money by going that route.
 
Add/edit: And PPG too, specifically for being the entry level DAW for people that don't want to get overly invloved but still need quick and effective results.

Off the top of my head I will say Pro Tools, Cubase, Sonar and FL.
 
But let me think about it and I will get back to you in about 7 years 
 

Stipulation: I don't know much about other DAWs.
 
I think Cakewalk will survive and be around in 7 years because they try to stay on the wave and ahead of the curve (plus they have a lot of users who will be willing to weather the storm, as it were). I think X3 or X2b will be received well by most, some will find a problem with whatever they release, others will be happy. Like it or not, a lot of the marker is moving toward touch and i-crap because  that is where the mass market lives. I don't think that Cake will forget the small studio people.
I think Reaper will be around because of their user base and their business model.
Cubase and Logic will probably be around.
Pro Tools will be around because people are really slow to change even when they are not happy and PT is in a ot of pro studios.
I also think Harrison Mixbus will likely move up in the market... it will either bust of blast off. I think Harrison has the resources to make it work. It (along with Reaper) may well bring about the demise of some of the established DAWS.
Studio One... I don't know. I know people who swear it is the best thing since sliced salami and others who would like to be rid of it. I think a lot of it depends on what you do with a DAW. If you are mostly MIDI you will hate one and love another... if you are mostly audio you probably have an opposite opinion of the same DAWs.
 
Of course this is all completely subjective opinion on my part.
 
We could ask Bubba, he has probably been there already (7 years from now)... but he is probably sworn to secrecy.
 
J

You cannot project the longevity of any software based on current popularity, nor on which huge multinational company's wing it lives under.
 
Remember OS/2? I didn't think so. Backed by IBM and Microsoft and heavily marketed. Anybody else ever use Xenix? That was going to be Microsoft's independent UNIX. It died, while another independent version, initially developed by one guy and advertised solely by word-of-mouth, became very successful. Remember when Microsoft got sued for imitating market-leader Lotus 123's keyboard shortcuts? Nobody cares about that now. Remember when CP/M was going to rule the emerging personal computer market? How about WordPerfect, which once had a 90% market share. How many of you are running a Netware network? Or playing games from once high-flying ID Software? Writing software in LISP, Cobol or FORTRAN? On a NeXT machine?
 
These aren't obscure also-rans. They are examples of software products that once graced the cover of Time Magazine, had nothing but positive buzz and ruled their market segments.
 
It would not be historically inconsistent for Pro Tools to be gone and forgotten in 20 years. Logic could disappear even sooner; all it would take is one meeting in an Apple boardroom. Steinberg may be a big fish in our world, but once they became part of Yamaha they became a footnote in the company annual report - and could be abandoned with the same ease as dropping a motorcycle model. Same for Cakewalk: last time I read a Roland annual report CW didn't even warrant a separate line item.
 
If I was going to place a bet, it would be on Garage Band.

bandso
Didn't one of the more revered members of this board recently state that mixcraft was the be all end all of DAW's and all others suck in comparison?
 
 
No offense to mixcraft users. It may be a perfectly fine DAW. It's just the string of posts that hit this forum by an unnamed member were way over the top.

Yeah... I remember that, lol. I wasn't me.
J

Pro Tools by the sheer numbers
Sonar
Cubase
Sony Vegas.  (It already handles multitracking, and I can see Sony making it a full DAW with the already superb video engine.  It is the only product to receive any updates in the last 4 years, outside of SF10 being ported to Mac.)  

Interestingly it was announced today that Steinway & Sons were being taken private by the private equity leveraged buyout company Kohlberg & Co.:
 
http://www.usatoday.com/s...-kohlberg--co/2479355/
 
Is this "good" for Steinway? Anytime I hear "private equity leveraged buyout" I tend to get kind of nervous.
 
What if the the same happened to Avid?

FCCfirstclass
 
Sony Vegas.  (It already handles multitracking, and I can see Sony making it a full DAW with the already superb video engine.  It is the only product to receive any updates in the last 4 years, outside of SF10 being ported to Mac.)  

 
The irony in this statement is that it would be a complete 360 if that happened.  Vegas WAS originally an audio only program before the rise of VSTs and they built the video portion on top of that  later.  It explains why it is superior when it comes to audio editing to other video editors.  With that said, most of the audio features  have not changed  since the program was owned by Sonic Foundry with the exception of a few more third party plugins borrowed from Sound Forge and a few features for video like surround sound improvements.  Sony has neglected both Sound Forge and Acid (their D.A.W.) with no sign of being eager to move forward.  Unless they pull a massive surprise, I highly doubt they would backtrack after working so hard to get Vegas accepted as a video tool.  I would expect a major upgrade to Acid or even a multitrack D.A.W. - like Sound Forge before that happened.  Vegas and Acid are already very similar on the audio end since the audio engine and effects are practically identical.

especially since Reason finally addressed one of it's biggest weaknesses, the ability to record external audio without resorting to hacks.