Who around here thinks the end of civilization is nigh?

Well I don't know to what extent or what end might mean, but the reason I am asking is this.
 
I received a phone call from my brother in law this morning  who wants to rent some of my fallow farm land to raise a garden and some livestock. He feels the economy will collapse in the next few years and want to " live off the land" until things "recover".
 
It was a pretty disturbing conversation because he is convinced it will happen. I work with some people who are "preppers" and stockpiling ammo and guns, building solar power planrs, and the like.
 
I have read the gamut of scenerios from the way out web sights to pretty conservative ones and the scenerios are disturbing, from civil unrest to martial law to looting and the like.
 
I just wonder what your  thoughts are on this?

"The end is nigh" crowd is as old as the hills. And by "nigh," they mean "coming right up." The fact that they have all throughout history been proven wrong should tell you something. I think for some people it's a way of making their otherwise boring lives seem more exciting. 

As I recall, lots of people were pretty certain the whole entire world was going to end at least 3 or 4 times over the last 2 years or so.

The idea that because a number of people believe something adds weight to that belief is a fallacy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_the_majority

Oddly, given the scope of diversity on the interwebs, it seems to me that many people seek out places where they mainly encounter like minded individuals. And because of this, they tend to get strong reinforcement of their beliefs, regardless or merit, rather than dissenting opinions or skepticism towards those often highly questionable and poorly supported beliefs.

Depends on how you figure the collapse of civilization and exactly what it means and what it looks like. 

At some point, every civilization collapses. And the reasons vary.  Are we (in the USA or the world) close to the collapse? 

Again that depends. Individual civilizations have come and gone in the past without much fanfare.  Others rose in their place. But in the past the connections between components of those civilizations were not as interconnected nor as dependent on each other as they are today. Mostly every group could support themselves already at the agricultural level in centuries past. 

Today, it may be more precarious. How many people today know how to plant and raise food crops and preserve them to last the winter? How many folks know how to hunt wild game and process it? Not many, I would venture. How many even live close to a wooded area to access the game without having to jump into a car and drive? 

A ripple in the economy of a small country in Europe causes great concern (Cypress) and markets move around the world. One country going down economically due to mismanagement of it's internal finances could theoretically be the trigger point for a global collapse of the house of cards. I just finished reading a book called Currency Wars. A global collapse of this nature is not a far fetched idea now. And.... to make it more scary, the things the various governments are doing (of a financial nature) are basically painting them (and us) into the proverbial corner where the results have been documented time after time in history by other countries and groups who have done the identical things we are doing...and how it always ended badly. 

Being able to provide food, shelter, clothing, and defense is not only a good idea, I think it's critical to our survival should the proverbial SHTH scenario occur. Unless policy on money and spending change, and not just here in the USA, but in the entire world..... the possibility of a global collapse of the currency and all that would entail is a real possibility. 

Look at the Weimar republic, look at Columbia, look at a number of the African countries. Heck.... look at the good old USA.... we have had some bad times financially when this country was getting started. Just read our early history. Worthless money... no credit.... high taxes.... the list goes on and on. Everybody thinks the big  crashes were in the great depression and then again just a few years back with the stock market decline..... chump change. 

 We're all doing what they did. You can't buy food if the price is hyperinflated and no one wants your worthless paper money. The panic that would result in just days..... not good. 

I don't think the world will end with a meteor, a super volcano, a tsunami, or from a religious reason. There are those who do. I think the more eminent danger is in the monetary policies in place currently. These are unsustainable and will collapse.... it's anyones guess as to when, but I think we are witnessing the tremors now that will precede the total global collapse of the paper money. 

When it happens, not if, but when, you don't want to be in a city. Preferably you want to be out in the country, on some land, with some like minded folks, so you can work together to survive until things are restored to some sense of normalcy... however long that will take.  My guess is it won't be a quick fix if it's global in nature. 

I could paint more details into this picture of what I think it might be like on a daily basis during this time of distress, but I'll leave that to your imagination for now. 

It's always a good idea to be prepared. You never know what might happen.   

That's my 2 cents worth. 

I doubt the end of civilization is nigh, but OTOH I can't think of any reason not to try to become a little more self-sufficient and a little less reliant on the normal food distribution network, which is fragile (try buying bottled water right before or after a hurricane). Knowing that you'll have a source of water in an emergency is a good idea, even if it's just a rain barrel. This is especially relevant to those of us who live around the Pacific Rim where there is a genuine need to prepare for earthquakes.

Of course, you can save yourself all that bother and just stock up on guns 'n ammo. That covers every eventuality, including the zombie apocalypse.

They zig...I zag.  Hey, it's worked so far.

Nov. 22, 1963 to be exact.

drewfx1


As I recall, lots of people were pretty certain the whole entire world was going to end at least 3 or 4 times over the last 2 years or so.

The idea that because a number of people believe something adds weight to that belief is a fallacy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_the_majority

Oddly, given the scope of diversity on the interwebs, it seems to me that many people seek out places where they mainly encounter like minded individuals. And because of this, they tend to get strong reinforcement of their beliefs, regardless or merit, rather than dissenting opinions or skepticism towards those often highly questionable and poorly supported beliefs.

 
Interesting stuff. I've just finished reading Will Storr's excellently written and very interesting book "The Heretics: Adventures with the Enemies of Science", and a couple of the chapters deal with similar 'Confirmation Bias' ideas.
 
 
 
 

mike_mccue


I don't care what any of you believe...










50 million Elvis fans can't be wrong.

Harsh. But fair. 

I'd be more concerned with the contract of him having rights to my land
than I would about the reasons he's telling you....brother-in-law or not.

Since we're all in this together, all of the 'powers that be' have to maintain a status quo. Hyperinflation, while historically possible seems far fetched in that it is in nobody's best interest.. I think deflation is on the horizon.

interestingly, the Byzantine empire (I think I'm getting the right name here) used gold as their currency standard and for over 500 years prices and wages hardly budged... there was a slight increase of inflation of a few percent over that time span. 

The situation we are in now (worldwide) is a currency war. (#3 actually) The US is manipulating it's currency trying to gain a trading advantage over the others who are also attempting to destroy, or at least inflate the value of the other world currencies. Interest rates are being kept artificially low, printed (inflated dollars) are being "pumped" into the economy of the US on a monthly basis with no end in sight, and spending by the government is increasing, not decreasing. None of these portend a "good ending" to this situation.  Our stock market is hitting new highs. Not due to business being good, but due to the money being pumped in "for free" which is raising the stock market. When the pumping stops.....hold on. 

Going back to a "gold standard" where every dollar or yen or yuan is backed by an equivalent amount of gold is totally out of the question since doing that would create it's own problems.... equally not good. 

We are sitting in that proverbial place where we are between a rock and a hard place. If we turn right there are major repercussions to deal with and overcome...... same thing if we turn left... and if we simply sit still and continue on the same course, we will encounter problems. So for now, the powers that be continue on the same course hoping to find a good way out where there appears to be none forthcoming. 

As citizens, we are along for the ride. There's not much we can do except prepare the best we can to survive, perhaps in a very literal way.... food, water, shelter, you know, the basics of life. 

I do certainly hope I'm wrong. 

mike_mccue


It [the Byzantine Empire] went kaput when it ran out of conquest and slaves. 

Maybe, but who among us hasn't had that same problem?

Well, the end of the world is real.  Except for the fact that it will be 3-4 billion years into the future when the sun turns into a red giant...

I would guess that the most likely cause of an extinction level event for humans, would probably be a comet or large asteroid strike although an eruption of the super caldera at Yellowstone is predicted to wipe out 94% of human life.

bitflipper


In 1999, my Dad called me and asked what I thought about buying gold Krugerands. Some dickhead was pushing them as a hedge against the upcoming end of the world on 1/1/00. If the world did come crashing down, I said, who'd need coins? I advised him to invest in something that would still have value: farm implements and seeds.

I'm still kicking myself for not cashing on the YTK hysteria. Oh wait, I did. I made half a million dollars writing YTK-ready software for ignorant government bureaucrats.

I used to do a lot of commodity trading and, back in September of '99, I had a LOT of gold trades going on (controlling several million dollars worth).  I had more than one day with six-digit gains but, unfortunately, had picked too aggressive of a target and missed it by only a couple of dollars so I lost most of my gains (including one day with a large six-digit loss that was more than my mortgage!).  I still came out over $80k ahead not counting the money I made with all the extra IT consulting I was doing because most of the staff were fixing the so-called "Y2K Bug."  If I had only been a bit more conservative on my exit target, those trades would have netted me at least $400k - oh well...